Відео

Not to be rude but you got your model wrong. I live in tornado alley and have been in five tornadoes including one that completely destroyed my house. I have seen them all form right in front of me. I guarantee you the tornado actually forms from the ground up. I don’t know how but that is what I have seen myself on all five tornadoes. Thank you but you need to figure this out.

Dr. Orf can you recommend bibliography to understand this lecture?

Please share this with everyone. By far the best explanation for the lay person.

I heard crumbling castle playing on the radio a few months back but couldnt remember the name. Probably the most unexpected place I would find it again 😂

a wHot now?

Anyone else came back to this video after seeing Timmer's drone video of the Greenfield tornado?

VERY COOL!!!

Wow! That was cool! I am almost 59 years old/young--why am I using the word cool?!? 🤷 What other words have the same meaning as cool?

Would you be able to divulge the outputs you use to visualize the cloud matter in cm1? Thankyou

But the funnel is the part that eats your house...

where is the audio

This helps me understand so much more! I doubt I’ve ever met anyone who would know this much about how a tornado forms!

Leigh, I commented once before in another video of yours. I'm quite an experienced software developer among other things and that is most impressive. It's always more difficult when you begin before the framework and modeling engines are developed/widely implemented. You've built quite the name for yourself, keep it up!

Best video on tornados and how they form! Now I watch real tornados and understand where the twists are coming from!

Cletus! Its comin' right fer us!!!

miso meso?

this would make Tim and Pete so happy!! RIP Samaras Family!!!

I've been watching a lot of storm chaser videos lately and started wanting to learn more about mesocyclones, supercells, updrafts and downdrafts etc and this video is pure gold 🥇👏. This is why I ❤ simulation and visualization. So fascinating 🤓

Kudos to Dorothy 👍

To 5m resolution and beyond!

Please never say spawned a tornado you sound uneducated in research.

Humble Brag: "I don't know what it means but it looks pretty cool..." This guy seems to be a computer scientist that minored in Sever Weather. Anyway, this is the coolest thing I have ever seen. Thankyou for sharing your work on yt!

I need new hobbies. I recognized the 1985 Fort Worth crash reference from the episode of Mayday. :C

It's difficult to find an older scientist. They tend to let their untested hypotheses become ossified beliefs. They often become so stuck in their ways that they end up resorting to the same attitudes common in pseudoscience. There seems to be a cycle that a scientific field can fall into. 1) A generation proposes hypotheses, performs experiments, and discovers breakthroughs. 2) The Discoverers mentor the next generation in formulating a model based on those breakthroughs. 3) The Model brings progress, excitement, funds, and public trust; the Modelmakers take over; and they push the Model. 4) The Modelmakers emotionally invest in the Model, and they come to not want their work superceeded. 5) Enough of the Modelmakers disallow questioning the Model that dogma develops against the Scientific Method. 6) Progress, excitement, funds, and public trust decrease; and the field shrinks in a negative feedback loop of toxic culture. 7) The Modelmakers retire or die, the dogma breaks down, and the field opens back up to the Scientific Method. 8) The field is revitalized as hypotheses are proposed, experiments performed, and breakthroughs discovered.

Some back-of-the-envelope results: If the full supercell simulation he references here took 4 weeks and was done in 2017, then we're looking at about the 2060's to start using the real-time probability simulations he dreams of. 4 weeks/simulation * 7 days/week * 24 hours/day * 60 minutes/hour = 40,320 minutes/simulation We'll need at least 100 simulations, all completed within 10 minutes. Moore's Law is twice the computing speed every two years. So, we're looking at, 4*7*24*60*100/2^(X/2) Where X is the number of years after 2017. Solve for X, round up, and you get 38. 2017 plus 38 is 2055. Add another 10 years for various other factors, and we're at 2065. I'll still (barely) be working age by then, but I'd wager nobody in attendance at this meeting will be. We're still decades from tornado evaculations.

I don't know much about tornadogenesis, but it looks like the big anticyclone that forms to the left of the smaller incoming cyclones plays a role in corralling their vorticities together. Is that already well-studied or is it not the case?

i was pretty sure i was the only one to remember that graupel was a thing, took quite a few searches especially considering that my memory of it was spelled "grovel". stunning viz work all around. i'm curious if you saw the recent awesome footage from Reed Timmer and how it must validate (or refine, or challenge) your understand of tornadic simulation. have you done a computation based on, and compared to, an actual super cell event? left side simulation, right side satellite photo....that style of video?

I would imagine that a model like this could be used in conjunction with a mechanism to heat the air in certain spots to affect storm formation/intensity. Probably the state of the art of such tech would be classified and many decades ahead of this guy's work.

Impressive work!

2024 a 500km just happens, multiple vortex

Dr. Orf is the GOAT! 🌪️🐐

Neat! Kind of silly how they cut it down to two sentences

Have you found any interesting points yet as to what causes the anti-vortex forces that seem to eventually shut down tornadoes?

..can produce the moving equivalent of a nuclear bomb... Testing of weather weapons based on the pulsed subcritical reaction of plutonium began in the USA in the mid-50s. This is why there is no PUBLIC radiology network in the US. Weather drones were at first primitive balloons with difficult radio control, but scientific progress has taken its toll and today they are incredibly effective. DON'T LOOK UP ) OPPENHEIMER - Creating The Nuke Scene Cortex Videos 15:44 the finger of satan... When you look at ANOTHER mushroom cloud of a supercell, does it HINT TO YOU ANYTHING? Then just take dosimeters and run to check the gamma level))) Oppengamer was the first to believe in gamma weapons, then he convinced the generals of the HIDDEN power of weather weapons based on PULSE nuclear reactions...and then the race began for “weapons-grade” plutonium supposedly to counter the Soviets... that’s very briefly) The generals were also shocked, but Oppy easily convinced them of the reality of this thing. Then it’s a matter of technology and finance... Plutonium core based meteodrones use HIGH RADIATION GAMMA IMPULSE for provokation HUGE water condensed process in previosly still atmosphere...meansured, please), GAMMA LEVEL near typical "supercell" It is necessary to measure gamma AT THE BEGINNING of the supercell formation process - while the drones are ACTIVE. This is the first half hour. The plutonium core of the meteodrone generates powerful radial gamma pulses in the dew point layer and this gives the PRIMARY impetus to the entire process of creating a pressure/temperature gradient. Gamma radiation ionizes moist air, it condenses into a powerful cloud, a pressure gradient arises and the supercell mechanism is activated - warm air from all sides tends to the center of the format. Has anyone asked the feds why there is no PUBLIC network of radiology stations in the USA? In Canada it exists, and these stations show very interesting data when supercells pass over them...

Apparently, based on how the Ward chamber model worked with multiple vortices it allowed for a center where there was a downward draft which could be a path to a seat for the funnel vortex to sit in. Wall cloud has negative-particles and the debris shaft has positive+particles thus 2 different fluid types that don't mix.

It has been a while (25yrs) since I used ArcGis or mapping software. I do remember it would take many hours to make maps and predictive projections. It must have taking many long hours to make this simulation and some really cool software. Thanks for the vid, that was interesting.

Wow this is awesome. Do we have simulations of a building supercell yet that leads to something like this? These storms have always been a curiosity to me. Another question is did you solve the io problem? Hopefully with SSDs it isn’t a problem now. I work in data storage too.

Man this is exactly what I have been Looking for. I was struggling to visualize radar returns to how the tornado actually forms. It’s like he read my mind and gave an answer for everything I have ever wondered. Thank god for physics and science majors

ILL - INI

could you make a tutorial on how to do your own simulations with CM1? i don't have a supercomputer but i would love to be able to simulate my own tornadoes!

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Thank you for sharing this simulation on youtube, it was very interesting to watch! This makes me wonder if there have ever been attempts to find initial conditions that produce extremely strong or wide tornadoes. The physical limits of tornado intensity is something that I am very curious about but there doesn't seem to be much research on that. Have there ever been simulations that tried to produce such extreme tornadoes?

Can this be made to "crunch" via GPU for us users? Like Folding@Home, etc.?

The stats show a very low chance of being hit by one, but i can tell you from experience if you live in tornado alley, the odds of dealing with a close call in a given year are pretty high. Even if they never actually drop one, those situations are frightening themselves. Having a massive radar indicated rotating supercell right over or aiming right for your home? Yet so many pay them little mind until they're there. No shelter, no plan, no awareness during tornadic events. I suppose thats a less stressful way to be but it does cost people. If there's a reasonable chance of one, im watching the radar until there's not. Even if it's overnight. Sleeping when there's a monster roaming the sky looking for a random place to annihilate? Hell no.

It would be cool if you simulated what radar from the simulation would look like and compared it to the actual. Level 2 files have the exact time of each ray, so it is possible to do it precisely

gorg

Here's what I want to know: If you run this program multiple times does it always evolve in exactly the same way every time?

Really cool

May 24, 2011 was my first tornado intercept and man was it a doozy. Intercepted near Binger/Lookeba and the supercell stayed intact for so long that my parents' neighborhood west of Guthrie suffered damage. Fascinating model visualization. I learned more about supercell structure and dynamics watching this than in years of observations.

The scv can be hilighted in great detail with reed timmers recent Iowa tornado